Global Music Forecasts 2015-2020 Declining Legacy Formats Cancel Out Streaming Growth

The 20,000 Foot View

In a few short years streaming has gone from being an interesting sideshow to the most important component of the recorded music market in terms of impact, innovation and disruption, though not in revenue terms.  Indeed streaming still only represents            of all recorded music revenue but its growth is directly impacting virtually every other aspect of the industry.  For the next five years the music industry will evolve at twin speeds, with the dynamic streaming sector sitting in stark contrast to the declining but still dominant legacy formats of the CD and the download.

• 2014 was            big year for streaming but            of the revenue growth it            to Nordic markets in 2013           
• Global recorded            revenues were            billion in retail            in 2014, down            on 2013 
• Global digital            revenue stood at            billion in           
• Global recorded            revenues will still be declining            2020 in retail value revenues                       billion,            down on 2014Japan,            of            global revenues, continues to drag            the global total due to            domestic revenues
• Digital will                       of all recorded music revenues            2020
• Markets where            has been strong now have            growing digital revenue than those            iTunes did not get a           
• Latin America            one of the few regions            will experience music revenue growth            2015 and 2020
• Declining sales            CDs and downloads, coupled with            from live, other digital media            free music will offset streaming           
• Streaming growth            peak in 2015 and will                       of total music revenue in                       of digital revenue)
• Streaming slowed            growth between 2012 and 2014            to its impact on download           
• By 2020            will be            million music subscribers            up from            million in 2014
• In 2014            accounted for            of streaming revenue                       billion and will grow to            in 2020
• Free streaming            had            billion users in 2014            the unique audience was            million
• Blended monthly            ARPU (free and paid) was           
• Consumer spending            digital music declined by            in            with the            increase in            digital            driving overall digital growth

Companies mentioned in this report: Apple, Amazon, Deezer, Digster Playlists, Google, Guvera, iHeart Radio, Mixcloud, MTV, MusicQubed, Pandora, PRS for Music, Psonar, QQ Music, Radionomy, Rdio, Rhapsody, Slacker, Smart, SoundCloud, Spinnr, Spotify, Tenecent, YouTube