Reports Music

Global Music Forecasts 2014 to 2019 The Shift To The Consumption Era

Mark Mulligan
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The 20,000 Foot View

2013 was the recorded music industry’s            successive year of revenue decline. The prolonged death rattle of the CD continues to drag the global market down with it and things just got worse with the paid download entering its own tailspin. Streaming and Subscriptions are the great hope and are growing at unprecedented rates.  But the            products are not enough on their own, affordable mass market products are needed too. Even with them global music revenues will still decline slightly for the next five years. Without them revenues will shrink at pace and scale. 

Key Findings

  • We are            the fourth phase of digital            one that will be defined            curation, programming and affordable subscription           
  • Between 2008            2013 the global recorded music            declined by            from            billion to            will drop by a further            down by a            fall in            the world’s second largest music           
  • Streaming and            revenue is strongest in the            where there was never a            paid download sector.
  • The outlook            a story of revenue transition            incumbent revenue decline: physical revenue            decline by            by 2019 while            and Subscriptions transition will help            download revenues down by            over            same period.
  • Despite revenue            the CD will remain a            important product, with physical accounting                       of global revenue in 2019. 
  • Similarly, despite            revenue decline, download buyers will            the majority in 2019, declining            just            between 2013 and 2019.
  • Mass Market            will transform the binary choice            Premium and Ad Supported into            hierarchy of opportunity.
  • Telco bundles            be the other crucial tool            monetizing the mainstream music consumer.
  • Ad Supported            bring scale and improved but            modest ARPU:            by 2019, compared                       for Premium Subscriptions and            for            Market Subscriptions.

Companies mentioned in this report: Spotify, MusicQubed, blinkBox Music, Telia, Wimp, Telenor, TDC Play, TDC, Deezer, France Telecom, Napster