Recovery Economics Post-Lockdown TV

The 20,000 Foot View: As society emerges from the            imposed lockdown, the ongoing impact on TV production will be significant; returning to normal means adapting to the constraints of social distancing. The increased use of sound stages and green screen facilities will become the norm in the absence of a            vaccine. Studio space demand was already high pre-COVID, and now shows that stopped mid filming will be competing for pre-booked slots with shows scheduled to start filming, further impacting output. Pay-TV companies had previously increased their scripted drama output to compete against SVOD, now they are unable to fully execute on this strategy while SVOD growth accelerates through lockdown. This is likely to have a detrimental impact on the Fall schedule. We can expect increased reliance on repeats and an opportunity for SVOD services to enhance their discovery functionality, presenting old shows as serendipitous new content for subscribers. Successful production companies will be ones that plan for a COVID/recession-compliant mid-term future, finding a way to both cope and innovate. 

Key Insights

Filming Impacts

• New filming            will vary according to the            of the production – it            be easier to film smaller           
• Increased use            sound stages / green screen           
• Potential rise            portable green screen units to            filming to actors
• Smaller casts            fewer extras – impacting on            scale productions
• Some bigger            may refuse to start working            year
• Increased cost            travel and strong variation in            different countries ease lockdown will            location shoots more difficult
• Studio space            was already high pre-COVID, now            that stopped mid filming will            competing with pre-booked slots for            scheduled to start filming, further            output
• Rush to            new studio and production capacity
• Location shoots            also harder to enforce strict            in than studios
• Increased filming            actors separately and bringing split            together in post-production

Filming Impacts

• Pay-TV companies            previously increased their scripted drama            to compete against SVOD, now            are unable to fully execute            this strategy while SVOD growth            through lockdown
• Fall TV            normally start filming in summer            so Fall schedule is at           
• SVOD services            make old shows not feel            repeats by using data to            them at people who have            watched them and / or            them in recommendations or search           
• Gaps in            schedules will persist through much            2021 due to filling backlogs
• Linear TV            will be compelled to double            on other formats
• SVOD services            have to control demand (e.g.            episodic releases and dropped series)            compensate for reduced output 
• Will drive            rush to build new studio            production capacity for COVID compliance            recessionary impacts
• Location shoots            harder to enforce strict protocols            than studios, meaning these shoots            reduced and shows with heavy            shoots will be postponed further
• Increased filming            actors separately and bringing split            together in post-production

Companies and brands mentioned in this report: Amazon, Amazon Prime Video, Apple, Apple TV+, AT&T Comcast, Disney, Disney+, Disney Studios, HBO, HBO Max, Netflix, Peacock, The Mandalorian, WarnerMedia

*NOTES : MIDiA defines majors as follows:

• Media majors:            of revenues derived from media           
• Communications majors:            of revenues derived from communication           
• Tech majors:            of revenues derived from tech