How a US TikTok ban could accelerate the rise of the Global South

Amid a flurry of year-end lists released last month, TikTok published a ranking of the platform’s most popular songs. While US music executives have been busy considering how a potential TikTok ban could impact their artists in the new year, the number one track on TikTok in 2024 was not by an American act at all. It was “Gata Only”, a catchy reggaeton tune sung in Spanish by Chilean artists Cris MJ and FloyyMenor, and driven to the top by fans in their home country. In fact, while American artists make up half of the tracks on the ranking overall, the top three slots are occupied by Latin America-based artists singing in their native tongue.

As streaming grows in Global South regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and music listenership fragments and localises everywhere, the US’ impact on global music culture is slowly decreasing (even as its dominance from a revenue perspective remains strong). If TikTok is removed from US app stores, while other regions where TikTok operates continue to localise their listening, it could mean a deepening of this trend. Latin America is a key case study.

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TikTok has often named Latin America as its fastest-growing region, and the company now has corporate offices in Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil. This is echoed by MIDiA survey data, where Brazil is roughly on par with the US when it comes to TikTok weekly active user penetration, while Mexico ranks much higher. 

What is popular on TikTok depends on the almighty algorithm, which is driven by user engagement. If more user activity is coming from non-Western countries, those users will have a stronger weight on the algorithm and, thus, what songs and artists are popular on the app. Social consumption is becoming a form of music consumption in its own right, especially as today’s social platforms operate more like entertainment ones. Global South regions over-index for YouTube as a form of music consumption and some may skip streaming to go straight to a social-first listening experience.

But of course, TikTok activity also translates to streams – contributing to these regions' growing impact on global streaming consumption. “Gata Only” has 1.37 billion Spotify streams at the time of writing, and its popularity has spread across the globe, cracking Billboard’s Hot 100 US songs chart. 

What this means for international music strategy

This trend is part of what is driving Western music companies to invest in overseas talent. The Latin tracks on TikTok’s list are associated with a mix of Western major labels and independent competitors:

1. “Gata Only” by Cris MJ and FloyyMenor – UnitedMasters

2. “Pedro” by Jaxomy & Agatino Romero & Raffaella Carrà – Sony Music Entertainment / Ultra Records

3. “Alibi” by Sevdaliza feat. Pabllo Vittar & Yseult – Create Music Group, under exclusive license from Believe

4. “La Diabla” by Xavi – Universal Music Group

At the moment, these tracks are better monetised when they take off in the US, thanks to higher average revenue per user on streaming there. So, TikTok’s potential removal from US app stores could even mess with US music companies’ international strategies, as TikTok currently serves as an important bridge between Global South hits and US listeners’ wallets. In this scenario, Global South music culture and consumption will become increasingly siloed off from the West.

In the long-term, however, this trend could see the West losing revenue share too. As Global South regions power the streaming and social media algorithms further away from Western content, they will get more of the royalty pot. Rather than focusing on monetising LATAM hits in North America, being a big hit on TikTok in LATAM could be an end in itself.

A new era of regional segmentation in entertainment?

There is one final point here. Ironically, by banning a Chinese app from US soil, the US is becoming more like China – a country with its own closed ecosystem of social and entertainment apps. We may begin to see regional segmentation on a platform basis, a 180-degree shift from the platform globalisation that characterised the past decade.

The cultural shift has already begun

It is difficult to predict what TikTok’s next year in the US will look like, let alone its next week. The US Supreme Court is set to hear TikTok’s challenge to the ban tomorrow (January 10, 2025), just over a week before the law enforcing it would take effect. If TikTok took the sale route, it would have to lose its algorithm – the very thing that made it so popular in the first place. 

As outlets like Billboard have reported, US labels are now doing damage control. But being prepared for these possibilities is not just about building a presence on other social platforms and creating backup marketing plans for their artists. It is also about understanding the deeper, long-term cultural shifts already underway, and which TikTok’s removal from the US would accelerate.