Ban or no ban, what comes next for TikTok creators?

The TikTok ban saga continues. The official date of the ban saw the app go dark in the US and Canada, replaced by a notice that the law had come into effect. However, only a few hours later, the app came back online, with a new notice that thanks to the Trump administration’s willingness to work on a deal, it would remain available to US consumers (for now). 

Trump himself has said he would be interested in the US owning 50% of the app – an intriguing prospect that TikTok’s owners have yet to comment on. 

TikTok has been granted a 75 day extension, provided it is working towards a sale. It is worth noting that whatever Trump’s intentions, he cannot entirely undo the now-enacted law himself without a total overhaul of the legal system, so the options are still as follows: 

1. TikTok is sold, without its algorithm, to a US organisation. 
2. Trump passes a new law to counteract the old one (which would need approval by House and Senate, in contradiction to their overwhelming support for the original law). 
3. Trump announces intent not to enforce the law, which would require compliance from all other parts of both state and national governments, and would be subject to his notoriously volatile mood. 

So, as the news continues to fluctuate – “TikTok is banned!” “Now it’s not banned!” – it is worth taking a step back and looking at what the reality will look like for creators and their affiliates. 

There are three possible outcomes:

1. The ban is ultimately upheld and TikTok leaves the US (for good). 
2. TikTok sells to a new owner, without its algorithm – which is the real value driver that makes the app fun, engaging, and therefore useful to creators and audiences alike. 
3. A grey area of fluctuating legal battles and uncertainty will emerge, as the law is in place but enforcement is questionable, which will be difficult for creators and advertisers to navigate, especially when there are alternative platforms at their disposal without such issues. 

No matter which way you spin it, the TikTok of yesteryear is over. 

Many creators and advertisers have already been looking to other platforms to future-proof their businesses in case the ban went through; this will likely continue. Moreover, it is a good opportunity to discover their real fans, who will gladly follow them onto a new platform, versus their passive ones, who will not. 

The recent Meta announcements around content moderation mean that its apps may become more difficult to cut through on, and the likelihood of appearing next to unsavory content becomes much higher. This makes YouTube Shorts the most neutral platform, with the added benefit of its long-form platform and creator programs being good for creator monetisation. 

The alternative is a jump to more niche platforms like Discord, which run the risk of audience fragmentation – but could have powerful benefits as well. Niche fan communities on closed-garden platforms appeal to audiences because of their authenticity and focus, but have smaller footprints among the broader consumer population, and therefore smaller audiences to draw from. The future of social is fragmented anyway, either on platforms – with siloes driven by algorithms – or between them, so this is a risk many will have to embrace sooner rather than later. 

In this way, the TikTok crumble actually opens up a world where creators are the driving force behind platform use and audience engagement, rather than simply being features of those platforms. Reception to the news of TikTok not getting banned has already been mixed; while many are glad their businesses have not been upended overnight, many in music especially seem almost disappointed. TikTok has been a massive driver of the exhausting content demands on creators, with little monetisation opportunity as audiences expect ever more value from artists for free, and its algorithm reduces the need to follow, prioritising content over creators. The rat race is a spinning merry-go-round many want to get off. A TikTok ban gives them that off-ramp. 

This respite with TikTok still in play gives creators the time to future-proof themselves on other platforms, before it ultimately deteriorates completely. Now is the time to focus on niche, engagement-focused, ‘walled garden’ platforms, which — despite limited reach — may have a greater chance at sustaining them in a fragmented future.